Every year we get the same calls in January and February: a tree came down in an ice storm, or a heavy wet snow load finally finished off a limb that had been cracking for months. Almost none of those trees failed out of nowhere. The warning signs were sitting in the yard all fall — a lean, a hollow trunk, a canopy that never quite filled back in — and nobody walked the property to look for them before the ground froze.
Late September through October is the window to do that walk. The leaves are still on enough of the canopy to compare against a healthy tree, the ground is firm enough for us to get equipment in if something needs to come out, and there's still time to get on the schedule before snow and ice make every job slower and more expensive. Here's what to look for on your own Monroe County property this week.
1. A Lean That's New or Getting Worse
Every tree has some natural lean, and that alone isn't a problem. What matters is whether the lean is new this year, or whether the soil around the base has started to lift or crack on one side — a sign the root plate is working itself loose. That's the combination that turns into a tree flat on your garage after the first heavy, wet snowfall of the season. If you noticed a lean develop after a windy stretch this summer, don't wait for spring to have it looked at.
2. A Hollow or Cavity in the Trunk
Tap the trunk of a mature tree near the base. A dull, hollow sound instead of a solid thud, or a visible cavity or open wound with soft, dark wood inside, means the tree has lost structural wood where it needs it most — right at the point that carries the whole tree's weight. A hollow tree can still be perfectly stable for years, or it can fail in the next big wind event. The only way to know which is a proper assessment, not a guess from the driveway.
3. Crown Dieback: More Bare Wood Than Last Fall
Compare this year's canopy to what you remember from last fall. A crown that's noticeably thinner, or has dead branch tips scattered through an otherwise green top, is telling you the root system or trunk is struggling to move enough water and nutrients up. Dieback that shows up two years running, especially at the very top of the tree, is one of the more reliable signs that a tree is in decline and won't be getting stronger going into winter.
4. Fungal Growth at the Base or on the Trunk
Shelf-like fungal conks growing out of the trunk or root flare are a direct sign of internal decay — the fungus is feeding on wood that's already breaking down. Unlike a lean or thinning crown, this one isn't subtle once you know what to look for, and it isn't something that reverses. A tree with conks at the base going into a winter of heavy snow load is a tree we'd want to inspect before the first storm, not after.
5. Codominant Stems and Included Bark
Look up into the canopy for two or more trunks of roughly equal size growing out of the same point low on the tree, with a tight V-shaped seam between them instead of a wide, rounded union. That seam is called included bark, and it's structurally weak — it's exactly where trees split apart under the extra weight of wet snow or ice. This is one of the most common failure points we see after Rochester's winter storms, and it's usually visible from the ground months in advance if you know to look up.
6. Ash Trees Still Standing From EAB Damage
If you've got an ash on the property that's been declining from Emerald Ash Borer, understand that dead ash wood gets brittle fast — faster than dead maple or oak — and a dead ash that's still upright going into an ice storm is one of the more dangerous situations we see all winter. If your ash still has bark splitting, D-shaped exit holes, or a mostly bare crown, this fall is the time to deal with it, not next spring.
What to Do With This Checklist
If you spotted even one of these six signs on your walk, that's worth a call. None of them mean a tree is guaranteed to fail this winter, but each one raises the odds, and Rochester winters don't give second chances the way a calm September afternoon does — a tree that looks fine in October and fails in a February ice storm usually does damage to whatever it lands on. Getting a problem tree removed or cabled now, while the ground is still workable, is a routine job. Getting the same tree off your roof in January is not.
Spartan Tree and Landscape offers free arborist assessments across Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario Counties. We'll walk your property, tell you honestly what's a genuine risk and what can wait, and get anything that needs to come down scheduled before winter conditions make the job harder and more expensive. Call or text us at or request a free estimate online to get your pre-winter walk-around on the calendar.